OUR SERVICES
Prison & Local Jail Population Projections
The JFA Institute uses our proprietary software, The Wizard Simulation to build models of prison and jail systems and forecast their populations. The Wizard Simulation model is an example of a stochastic entity simulation model. It is stochastic in the sense that the model is conceptually designed around the movement of individual cases (offenders) into, through, and out of correctional populations defined by the user. The model also makes use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques by adding an element of randomness to the simulation model. Random numbers are generated and used by the simulation process to determine the offender group composition and lengths of stay associated with a system. Individual cases are processed by the model through a series of probability distribution arrays, or matrices, that provide computations for specific cases. When loaded with accurate data, the model will mimic the flow of offenders though a correctional system.
The forecasted populations are composed of: (1) cases confined at the beginning of the simulation, and (2) cases admitted to the population at any point after the start of the simulation. The existing offender population and new offender admissions are modeled separately. By disaggregating a system in this manner, the user can adjust each of these sub-populations without altering the process of other sub-groups. This is particularly significant for completing “what-if” simulations on the forecasted population.
The Lead Forecaster at The JFA Institute is Wendy Ware who is a nationally recognized expert in criminal justice forecasting. Ms. Ware has produced prison forecasts for over 40 states and over 200 local jails.
Prison | Year | Scope |
Arkansas Department of Correction | 2003 - Present | Prison, parole, and probation populations |
Nevada Department of Corrections | 2001 - Present | Prison and all community supervision populations |
Rhode Island Department of Corrections | 2005 - Present | Sentenced and awaiting trial populations |
Wyoming Department of Correction | 2021 | Review non-JFA projections & technical assistance |
Colorado Department of Corrections | 2020 | Review non-JFA projections & technical assistance |
West Virginia Department of Corrections | 2020 | Simulation model design & technical assistance |
Nebraska Dept. of Correctional Services | 2019 | Prison population |
Ohio Department of Rehab & Corrections | 2018 | Technical assistance |
Wisconsin Department of Corrections | 2014 | Prison population |
Mississippi Department of Corrections | 2013 | Prison population |
Maine Department of Corrections | 2013 | Prison population |
Wisconsin Department of Corrections | 2014 | Prison population |
Kansas Sentencing Commission | 2011 | Prison population |
Local Jail | Year |
City of Detroit Detention Center | 2022 |
East Baton Rouge Parish, LA | 2021 |
Jackson County, MO | 2020 |
Santa Barbara County, CA | 2017 |
Spokane County, WA | 2017 |
Santa Clara County, CA | 2016 |
Mecklenburg County, NC | 2016 |
Sonoma County, CA | 2015 |
Travis County, TX | 2014 |
Dane County, WI | 2013 |
Maricopa County, AZ | 2012 |
Wake County, NC | 2012 |